As of now, five of the six divisions in Major League Baseball have at least one team within 5 games of the division leader. The only team that has basically wrapped up a spot in the playoffs is the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. So how will the divisions shake out? Here is how the National League Central division will finish:
National League Central: As of now, the Chicago Cubs own a 3.5 game lead on the Milwaukee Brewers, and a 6.5 game lead on their archrivals, the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs, although cursed, have to be the favorites to not only win the National League Central division, but also the World Series. The Cubs rank in the top 3 in every single statistical pitching and hitting category except quality starts, where they rank 4th with 63, and stolen bases, in which they rank 8th with 67 swipes. The Cubs have baseball's best bullpen, headed by closer Kerry Wood (4-2, 2.89 ERA, 24 saves 0.99 WHIP, 55 strikeouts in 46.2 innings), and set-up men Carlos Marmol (2-3, 2.95 ERA, 22 holds, 0.98 WHIP, 87 strikeouts in 64 innings) and Jeff Samardzija (1.54 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 12 strikeouts in 11.2 innings). The Cubs also own arguably baseball's best starting rotation, where they trot out Carlos Zambrano (12-5, 3.22 ERA), Rich Harden (6-2, 2.27 ERA), Ryan Dempster (13-5, 2.92 ERA), Ted Lilly (11-6, 4.26 ERA), and Jason Marquis (7-7, 4.73 ERA). Chicago's pitching is very tough to hit against through the entire game, as opponents may see a number of good pitchers.
The Cubs, however, are no slouches on offense either. Alfonso Soriano (.299 BA, 21 HR, 56 RBI, .344 OBP, .574 SLG), Aramis Ramirez (.278 BA, 19 HR, 75 RBI, .379 OBP, .493 SLG), Derrick Lee (.291 BA, 17 HR, 70 RBI, .356 OBP, .475 SLG), Kosuke Fukudome (.269 BA, 8 HR, 42 RBI, .369 OBP, .399 SLG), Geovany Soto (.281 BA, 17 HR, 63 RBI, .358 OBP, .490 SLG), Ryan Theriot (.314 BA, 1 HR, 31 RBI, .390 OBP, .372 SLG), and Mark DeRosa (.276 BA, 13 HR, 66 RBI, .369 OBP, .443 SLG) help pace a team that has scored the second-most runs in the majors, behind only the Texas Rangers. The Cubs have no weak out throughout their entire lineup. They should win this division and make a lot of noise in the postseason.
The Brewers are similar to the Chicago Cubs except for a few components component. Like Chicago, they have a solid middle of the order that features Ryan Braun (.300 BA, 30 HR, 84 RBI, .339 OBP, .586 SLG), Prince Fielder (.278 BA, 26 HR, 78 RBI, .375 OBP, .517 SLG), Corey Hart (.288 BA, 18 HR, 71 RBI, .326 OBP, .502 SLG), and JJ Hardy (.275 BA, 17 HR, 51 RBI, .336 OBP, .462 SLG). However, the Brewers do not have the same production throughout their entire lineup, evidenced by only a .254 team BA (10th in the NL), a .325 team OBP (7th in the NL), and 558 runs scored (7th in the NL).
Also like the Cubs, the Brewers have a very strong starting rotation. C.C. Sabathia (12-8, 3.11 ERA), Ben Sheets (11-5, 2.95 ERA), Jeff Suppan (7-7, 4.70 ERA), and Manny Parra (9-5, 4.02 ERA) help make up a reliable starting rotation, one however, that does sorely lack a reliable 5th starter. The lack of a reliable 5th starter and the continued struggles of their bullpen will likely be the reasons Milwaukee will not win this division, and possibly not the NL Wildcard. Brewers manager has no one outside of closer Salomon Torres (5-3, 2.69 ERA, 22 saves) he can trust in his bullpen. That will continue to be a huge issue as the season presses onward.
The St. Louis Cardinals are likely out of the divisional race, yet they are only 3 games behind the Brewers for the NL Wildcard. Albert Pujols (.347 BA, 25 HR, 75 RBI, .460 OBP, .613 SLG), Rick Ankiel (.286 BA, 22 HR, 61 RBI, .354 OBP, .541 SLG), Skip Schumaker (.298 BA, 7 HR, 35 RBI, .360 OBP, .416 SLG), and Ryan Ludwick (.306 BA, 29 HR, 84 RBI, .383 OBP, .607 SLG) have helped give St. Louis a very good offense that ranks 2nd in the NL in BA (.276), 2nd in OBP (.348), 3rd in runs scored (578), and 2nd in OPS (.775).
Pitching-wise though, St. Louis has struggled mightily, especially in their bullpen. Kyle Lohse (13-4, 3.80 ERA), Braden Looper (10-9, 4.20 ERA), Todd Wellemeyer (9-4, 4.01 ERA), and Joel Pineiro (5-5, 4.82 ERA) have all done solid jobs making up for the loss of injured ace Adam Wainwright(6-3, 3.14 ERA), who should be back sometime in September. The Cardinals bullpen has been trouble for them this season. It is the main reason that St. Louis has slipped in the playoff race and may find themselves on the outside looking in when the playoffs begin. The Cardinals have yet to find a reliable closer, as Jason Isringhausen (1-5, 5.98 ERA, 7 blown saves) and Ryan Franklin (4-5, 3.65 ERA, 7 blown saves) have struggled in that role. Until they can find a reliable closer, the Cardinals playoff hopes will fly away.
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